I have in my hand a piece of paper...

...wrapped around some shredded leaf, and it's burning.

That piece of paper has more value than anything Dai Cameroid is ever likely to bring back from Brussels.

Cameron is either incredibly stupid or very smart indeed. I don't think he can possibly be anywhere between those two extremes.

If he is a total gimboid, as he appears, then the EU will put pressure on him to either do as he is told or step down, and he will then do one or other of those things. The EU have form on this: Italy and Greece's leaders were brushed aside, those now in charge in Ireland and Spain are doing as they are told. The EU have even started a petty vengeance against those rating agencies that have downgraded their countries. That's actually comical. Don't these EU bureaucrats know who's really running things? Where do they think all their credit comes from?

So if he is a dope in the EU pocket, then those genuine Eurosceptic MPs will have been joined by a lot of planted EUrophiles whose job will be to make some trivial concession look important enough to shut the rest up for a while. That might have happened without Cameron's involvement at all so it doesn't prove his gimboidity in this instance.

There is another possible scenario in which Cameron would still appear to be a total gimboid but would be playing a very long and devious game.

Let us suppose that he actually does want an EU referendum, that he wants the EU to lose it, that he actually wants to be in charge of his country and not merely a local official on behalf of the EU. How could he go about achieving that?

He could not start by tub-thumping and shouting. He doesn't have a majority in the House and even if he did, some of his own party are EU drones. He is in coalition with the EU Brown-nose party sometimes referred to by the totally inaccurate name of 'Liberal Democrats'. So, if he tried to push through a referendum he would certainly fail.

Even if he succeeded, can he be sure that the population will vote us out of the EU? He's only going to have one chance and if he fluffs it, that's the end. No more chances. If the EU win that referendum there will never be another.

If the EU lost they would make us vote again, as they have in every other country where they lost. And again, and again, until we gave them the answer they wanted. Cameron must be aware of all of this. The EU drones in Parliament and in the general population know it too. If there is a referendum and the EU loses, we'll just do it again. The EU has nothing to fear from a referendum but those who want out have much to fear. The EU never loses because the voting only stops when they have their answer. Then it stops for good.

So maybe a referendum isn't the best way. Engaging all the devious brain cells in my possession, I wondered how I might go about things in Cameron's place. The remaining four non-devious cells looked away in disgust.

What I would do in this instance is certainly not to have a referendum. I might lose, and if I win I'll have to do it again and again until I lost. Then there would never be another chance. So no, I would not give you all a vote.

What I would do is piss you all off to monumental levels. I would have the Press reporting every petty little EU diktat, every instance where someone has suffered because of EU legislation, and all the while being big pals with the EUphiles in Parliament. I would do apparently idiotic things, to swell the ranks of the EUsceptics and make them as vocal as possible. The first thing I'd want is for everyone in the country to be aware of what the EU is doing to their lives, their businesses, everything. I'd want to hear protesting voices. Lots of them. I'd ignore them all.


I won't listen to what you want because I want you to want it more. I want you to want it more than anything and the best way to achieve that is to tell you you can never have it.


Then I would set about pissing off the EU. Get in the way, disagree, stick my nose in where it's not wanted, and finally chuck a King Dick spanner in their bailout plan. They will plot revenge, as they always do. As they are now doing.

Greece was not allowed to leave the single currency even though it's destroying them. We will never be allowed to leave the EU. A referendum is futile, it will just be re-run until we answer correctly. Really, there is only one way out.

We have to get thrown out. The majority of people in this country have to want to leave so there is no popular uprising in favour of staying in, and the EU have to want to be rid of us so badly that they are willing to lose all that easy money we hand over, and the fishing, and the oil, and the financial sector and more. If we are thrown out, Cameron can then call a general election and win. Those who will produce knee-jerk 'We must get back in' soundbites will be voted into oblivion and the risk of losing to UKIP will be completely wiped out.


Is that his game, I wonder?

Or is he just an empty forehead who will now either step down or roll over?

Time will tell.


Tick-tock, Dave.


Oh, and if Oily Al's promise of independence for Scotland is ever going to mean anything, Scotland has to be out of the EU too. Otherwise they're just swapping masters.